This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on April 22, 2026
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Odds: 0.8% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
This market is trading at extreme pessimism about world leader stability through 2027, with traders assigning only a 0.9% chance that all currently listed national leaders remain in power through the end of 2026. The question matters because it reflects expectations around global political volatility during a period that includes the 2024 U.S. presidential transition, multiple European elections, and potential leadership changes in major economies.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.9% | 99.2% | $99K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bear case, which dominates current pricing, rests on simple probability mathematics and historical precedent. With dozens of world leaders on the presumed list, the compound probability that none face removal through election defeat, resignation, coup, death, or other causes over a 2-3 year period approaches zero. France faces legislative uncertainty under Macron through 2027, the UK must hold elections by January 2025, Germany’s coalition remains fragile ahead of likely 2025 elections, and Canada’s Trudeau faces declining polling numbers with an election due by October 2025. Leaders in less stable regions including Latin America, Africa, and parts of Asia face even higher turnover risks. Health issues alone create substantial risk for aging leaders, while economic pressures from inflation and potential recession could topple multiple governments.
The bull case requires an exceptionally narrow interpretation of the market’s terms—perhaps only a handful of leaders from highly stable democracies qualify as “listed,” dramatically improving the odds that all survive their terms. If the list includes only leaders like Biden’s successor (inaugurated January 2025), Macron (term through 2027), and a few other entrenched figures in stable systems, the probability shifts considerably. This interpretation depends entirely on which leaders the market creator designated as relevant.
Key catalysts include the UK general election (must occur by January 2025), German federal elections (likely September 2025), Canadian federal election (by October 2025), and French legislative dynamics throughout 2025-2026. Traders should monitor coalition stability in Germany where the SPD-Green-FDP government shows strain, Trudeau’s approval ratings which recently hit historic lows in multiple polls, and any major geopolitical shocks that could trigger early elections or leadership changes. The market’s resolution hinges entirely on the specific list of leaders designated at market creation, making clarification of those terms the most critical factor for evaluation.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Which leaders are likely included in the “listed” group for this market?
The specific list determines everything but likely includes G7 and G20 heads of government at minimum. Clarifying whether it includes only current leaders or those who take office during the period is essential for proper evaluation.
Does a scheduled election loss count as being “out” for this market?
Yes, a leader leaving office through any means including democratic elections, resignation, death, or removal counts as being “out.” The 0.9% odds reflect that scheduled elections alone in the UK, Canada, and Germany make the YES outcome nearly impossible.
What’s the most likely way this market resolves to NO?
Given confirmed elections in the UK (by January 2025) and Canada (by October 2025), either a Conservative victory over Labour in the UK or a Liberal defeat in Canada would almost certainly trigger resolution to NO well before the December 2026 deadline.