How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the market's implied probability of an event occurring. A YES price of 75% means traders collectively believe there's a 75% chance the event will happen. You can buy YES (betting it will happen) or NO (betting it won't) and profit if you're correct.

Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? 4.9%

Q: What are the current odds for "Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?"?

As of July 28, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 4.9%.

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	4.9%	95.2%	$10K	Trade on Polymarket

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 27% YES
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 0% YES
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d’Or? — 0% YES

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for “Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?”?

As of July 27, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 4.9%.

Where can I trade on this prediction market?

You can trade this market on Polymarket (crypto-based).

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