This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on April 20, 2026
Will Everton finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?
Will Everton finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? Odds: 0.2% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The market pricing Everton’s chances of a third-place Premier League finish at essentially zero reflects the club’s current reality as a mid-to-lower table side fighting to avoid relegation rather than competing for Champions League positions.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.2% | 99.8% | $100K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case relies on a dramatic transformation that would be unprecedented in modern Premier League history. Everton would need a combination of massive January and summer transfer window investments from their new ownership (The Friedkin Group completed their takeover in December 2024), exceptional managerial appointments, and catastrophic collapses from at least four of the traditional top six clubs. The move to their new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock for the 2025-26 season could theoretically provide momentum, though stadium moves typically cause short-term disruption rather than immediate success. Even Leicester’s miracle 2015-16 title win only required finishing above five elite clubs, not securing third place ahead of established powers with vastly superior squads and resources.
The bear case is straightforward and supported by every relevant metric. Everton currently sits in the relegation battle for 2024-25, having finished 15th last season with just 40 points. The club has recorded zero top-six finishes since 2013-14 and lacks the financial firepower for the squad overhaul required to bridge a gap of typically 30+ points to third place in a single summer. Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, and Newcastle all possess significantly larger wage bills, superior academies, and established Champions League-caliber players. Key upcoming fixtures in March and April 2025 will likely determine whether Everton even maintains their Premier League status, making third-place aspirations for the following season completely unrealistic.
Traders should monitor Everton’s survival prospects first and foremost, with critical matches against fellow relegation candidates in the coming weeks. The summer 2025 transfer window (closing August 31, 2025) represents the only theoretical catalyst that could shift this market, though even unprecedented spending would face the obstacle that Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool have established tactical systems and squad cohesion built over years. Any managerial change before the 2025-26 season kicks off in August 2026 would be worth noting, though no manager has ever taken a relegation-threatened club to third place in consecutive seasons.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What would Everton need to achieve in the 2024-25 season to make a third-place finish in 2025-26 even remotely plausible?
They would need to avoid relegation first, then finish the current season with unexpected momentum suggesting at least a top-eight finish. Even then, the historical gap between mid-table and third place (typically 20+ points) makes the leap virtually impossible in one summer.
How does Everton’s new stadium opening in 2025-26 affect their prospects for a top-three finish that same season?
While the Bramley-Moore Dock stadium should increase matchday revenue long-term, stadium transitions rarely produce immediate on-field success and often create short-term disruption. West Ham’s move to the London Stadium in 2016 coincided with worse performances, not better.
Which teams would need to collapse for Everton to realistically finish third in 2025-26?
At minimum, four of these clubs would need catastrophic seasons simultaneously: Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, and Newcastle. This has never occurred in Premier League history, as at least five of these teams consistently finish in the top six.