This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 30, 2026
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? Odds: 0.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The market is pricing an essentially impossible scenario at 0.4%, as annual inflation reaching 2.7% in March 2025 would require a historically implausible deflation or misconstrued question—traders appear to interpret this as asking whether inflation will rise by an additional 2.7 percentage points rather than simply be 2.7%.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.4% | 99.6% | $98K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case for this market hinges entirely on definitional ambiguity. If the question literally asks whether year-over-year CPI inflation will increase by 2.7 percentage points from current levels around 3%, that would put headline inflation near 5.7%—a scenario requiring severe supply shocks, wage-price spirals, or energy crises reminiscent of 2022. The February CPI report (released March 12, 2025) and March CPI data (due April 10, 2025) would need to show catastrophic month-over-month increases exceeding 0.5% consistently, something not seen outside pandemic-era dislocations.
The bear case reflects economic reality: the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy and cooling labor markets make a 2.7 percentage point surge virtually impossible. The January 2025 jobs report showed decelerating wage growth, and core PCE—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—has been trending toward the 2% target. The March 19, 2025 FOMC meeting will likely reaffirm the disinflation trajectory, with projections showing continued moderation. Even if the February 28 PCE release shows unexpected strength, a 2.7pp jump would require multiple black swan events stacking simultaneously.
Key catalysts include the February CPI report on March 12 and the February jobs data (NFP) on March 7, 2025, which will signal whether wage pressures are re-accelerating. The March FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections on March 19 will indicate if policymakers see any inflation reacceleration risks. The final March CPI print arrives April 10, 2025—the exact market expiry date—making timing crucial. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments affecting oil prices and any unexpected fiscal stimulus announcements, though even these would struggle to produce the required magnitude in such a compressed timeframe.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does this market ask if inflation will be 2.7% or increase by 2.7 percentage points?
The wording suggests an increase by 2.7pp, which would mean inflation rising from roughly 3% to 5.7%—explaining the near-zero probability. If it merely asked whether inflation would be 2.7%, odds would be substantially higher given current disinflation trends.
What would need to happen for year-over-year CPI to jump 2.7 percentage points in two months?
This would require unprecedented monthly CPI increases around 0.5-0.6% in both February and March 2025, combined with favorable base effects—a scenario only plausible with simultaneous oil price spikes, supply chain collapse, and currency crisis.
Why does the market expire on April 10, 2026 when measuring March 2025 inflation?
The 2026 date appears to be an error or the market measures March 2026 inflation, giving a full year for the scenario to develop—though even with extended time, a 2.7pp increase from early 2025 baseline remains highly improbable under current monetary policy.