This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 28, 2026
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Odds: 0.2% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The market is pricing an essentially impossible scenario where the Federal Reserve would slash rates by 275 basis points during 2026, reflecting extreme skepticism about any circumstances that would justify such aggressive easing. This matters because it reveals how traders view the outer bounds of monetary policy responses, even in severe recession scenarios.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.2% | 99.8% | $994K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case requires a catastrophic economic collapse or financial crisis in late 2025 or early 2026 that forces emergency Fed action. This would need sustained negative GDP growth, unemployment spiking above 8-9%, and CPI falling toward zero or into deflationary territory. Even the 2008 financial crisis saw the Fed cut rates 10 times over 15 months, not 11 times in a single year. For this to hit, you’d need monthly FOMC emergency meetings beyond the scheduled eight 2026 meetings (tentatively January 28-29, March 17-18, April 28-29, June 16-17, July 28-29, September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 15-16), implying multiple 50-75 basis point cuts or extraordinary inter-meeting emergency cuts similar to March 2020.
The bear case is straightforward: the Fed has never implemented 11 rate cuts in a calendar year in modern history, and current economic conditions provide no foundation for such action. With the federal funds rate currently in the 4.25-4.50% range as of early 2025, eleven 25-basis-point cuts would bring rates to zero, requiring not just recession but depression-level conditions. The Fed’s dot plot projections and forward guidance show policymakers expecting gradual normalization, not panic cutting. NFP reports throughout 2025 would need to show massive job losses for months before 2026 even begins.
Key catalysts include the January 29, 2025 FOMC decision and subsequent 2025 meetings where dot plots and economic projections will signal the baseline rate trajectory entering 2026. February’s jobs report (first Friday of March) and March 12 CPI release will be critical for assessing whether any recessionary trends are developing. Traders should monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury spread for inversion deepening, initial jobless claims breaking above 300k sustained, and core PCE inflation approaching the Fed’s 2% target from above, which would at least enable cutting to begin. The 2026 FOMC calendar will be released in 2025, confirming whether any additional meetings are scheduled, though eleven cuts would almost certainly require emergency sessions signaling acute crisis.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Could the Fed technically implement 11 rate cuts if it used 50 or 75 basis point cuts instead of the standard 25?
Yes, mathematically the Fed could achieve 11 cuts with larger increments across fewer meetings, but this would signal an even more severe crisis. The market still prices this near zero because such aggressive cutting would be unprecedented outside wartime monetary policy.
What historical precedent exists for double-digit Fed rate cuts in a single year?
The most aggressive modern cutting cycle was 1982 with 7 cuts, and 2001 saw 11 cuts but that spanned January 2001 through December (across two calendar years with emergency post-9/11 actions). No single calendar year has recorded 11 distinct cutting actions.
If a severe recession begins in mid-2025, would that make 11 cuts in 2026 more plausible?
Even with a 2025 recession, the Fed would likely begin cutting in 2025, meaning the bulk of easing would be split across two years rather than concentrated in 2026. The timing makes this scenario even less probable than the raw number suggests.